IRAQI FAIRS

The origins of Al-Qaeda can be traced to the Soviet War in Afghanistan. The United States viewed the Soviet support of the Afghan Marxists against the Afghan mujahedeen as a sign of Soviet aggression and expansionist policy. The CIA launched Operation Cyclone, channelling funds through Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence agency to the mujahedeen. A large number of Arab mujahedeen had joined the jihad against the Afghan Marxists, this was facilitated by organisations such as the Maktab-al-Khidamat, who were funded by wealthy Saudis who were approached by Osama Bin Laden. Al-Qaeda evolved from the Maktab-al-Khidamat organisation. The Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989, however Mohammed Najibullah’s communist Afghan government remained in power for a further three years before been overrun by mujahedeen. Mujahedeen leaders struggled to agree on a method of administration. Alliances were in constant flux and fighting for territory left the country devastated. Some mujahedeen decided to extend their struggle to other parts of the world, a number of organisations were created to deal with these aspirations. One of these organisations was Al-Qaeda which was formed by Osama Bin Laden.

The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 threatened Saudi Arabia, as some of its most valuable oil-fields were dangerously close to Iraqi forces. In addition, there were fears that Saddam Hussein’s call to pan Arab/Islamism might rally internal dissent. Bin Laden offered the services of his mujahedeen to King Fahd to protect Saudi Arabia. However, King Fahd chose instead the offer of US support and allowed them to deploy forces on Saudi territory. The deployment angered Bin Laden, as he believed the presence of foreign troops near the sacred sites of Mecca and Medina profaned sacred soil. After speaking publicly, he was denounced by the Saudi government and was forced to go into exile in Sudan. From 1992 to 1994, Al-Qaeda were based in Sudan, arriving at the invitation of the Islamist theoretician Hassan al Turabi following an Islamist coup. Bin Laden assisted the Sudanese government, purchased and created various business enterprises and established Al-Qaeda training camps.

After the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, a new force began to emerge named the Taliban. The Taliban was constituted of children of the war, many who were orphans and many who had been educated in the rapidly expanding network of Islamic schools called madrassas. The infighting and lawlessness that dogged Afghanistan gave the well disciplined and well organised Taliban the opportunity to gradually expand their control, eventually capturing the capital Kabul in September 1996. At the same time, the Sudanese authorities were forcing Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda to leave Sudan, the Taliban invited them into Afghanistan. In 1996, Al-Qaeda announced a jihad to expel foreign troops from what they felt were Islamic lands. Bin Laden issued a fatwa, which amounted to a public declaration of war on the US and any of its allies.

Next week, the Iraq Study Group, a committee of so-called WISE MEN, will go public on what they feel the United States should do to extract itself from the current civil war in Iraq. I believe that among their recommendations will be:

o Entering into diplomatic negotiations with both Syria and Iran to get their help in settling the violent internal situation in Baghdad.

o The embedding of US troops directly into Iraqi army units to stiffen them up into a more potent fighting force.

The vital question is where does this leave us? I lived through Viet Nam, and I understand the origins of the Korean War. I have also taken the time to study guerilla tactics that were used in Malaysia, Burma, and various African countries. To quote a movie, “Houston, we have a problem”. Our President is asleep at the switch on this one, and is caught up in a cycle of decision making that he doesn’t seem capable of extricating himself from.
Our DECISION WINDOW whereby we could have possibly turned Iraq into a democracy has now PASSED. We did in fact win the war. It took 29 days to take control of Baghdad. It could take more than a dozen years at this point with a continued outlay of $200 billion per year, and several thousand American lives per year plus ten thousand American causalities per year to potentially build a democracy – no guarantees though. The question is FOR WHAT?

If the answer is to IMPOSE democracy on a country where Thomas Jefferson and George Washington do not seem to exist, then it can not be done. You are simply beating your head against the wall. This is not an American failure in my opinion. What we were attempting to achieve was simply not achievable. Certainly not without the presence of hundreds of thousands of additional American troops, which is not in the cards?
This is a region built on dictatorships. It is no coincidence that Saddam Hussein was a brutal dictator. The argument has always been advanced as to “Whether Saddam Hussein made Iraq, or did Iraq make Saddam Hussein”. After the last three years, the question is more appropriate than ever.

In our country we consider life to be very precious. Don’t go by the headlines in the newspapers. That’s toilet reading. Go by what happens when miners get trapped in mines, or when a woman is trapped in a burning building. What about when a child falls into an abandoned well? Is any thought given to the cost of saving these individuals? The answer is none. Every conceivable way that can be utilized to save lives is grabbed at by the emergency workers.
When you look at the Mid East, you realize we are dealing with a region that gives no thought to human life. Wasting lives there is a daily fact of living. It always has been this way, and always will be. I am not a pessimist; I must deal with reality however. In over a half century of living I have found certain notions to be eternally true. One of them is that you can’t ever want more for another human being than that human being wants for themselves. You will simply waste your time, and your energy. People have to be ready to fight for democracy. Nobody in Iraq is willing to wage that fight, except for American soldiers. This is a recipe for disaster.

Every day as Chairman of StocksAtBottom.com I am involved in the stock market. We have a saying in Wall Street, a stock is going to go where it’s going to go. You can not support a stock, unless you are prepared to buy the VERY LAST SHARE. The reason is that once you are done buying a stock, it will trade where it’s going to trade on that last share that you haven’t bought.
The analogy to Iraq is that unless you are prepared to kill the very last terrorist, that terrorist is going to remain long after the American presence is gone. I know the President probably sincerely believes that by remaining in Iraq we are working towards the reconfiguration of the government into a democracy. I believe we are simply postponing the INEVITABLE. Right now that looks like a Shia led government in Baghdad with no room for the Sunnis who supported Saddam. In fact, the Shia will continue to kill the Sunni’s and the Sunni’s will retaliate by killing Shia when they can, and our President wants decent young Americans to hang on in between, and get shot at.
To quote people smarter than me, “IT AIN’T GONNA WORK”. We are simply putting off what is going to happen any way. The difference is that later, it will be at a greater cost to our brave American soldiers, and our national treasury. This President chooses to borrow the money from foreigners to finance the war effort. He has asked for sacrifice from our troops only, nothing from Americans.

There have been no tax increases to pay for this disaster, only increases in the national debt so that our children and their children will shoulder the burden. The army is now having problems fulfilling its manpower requirements. We are stretched thin. The Iranians and North Koreans know we can not currently wage another military action in either country. We are bogged down in Iraq.
The American people on the other hand have shown that they are out in front of their President leading him, as opposed to him leading them which is an unusual situation. The recent Congressional elections clearly demonstrate that the people want a change in direction in the war NOW. If the President continues to stay the course, or dig himself deeper into a hole in the face of the people wanting a change, the complete rejection of the Republican Party will take place in the next Presidential election.

You have to realize that the Republican Party in the last twelve years gerrymandered just about every seat in the House of Representatives in order to maintain control of that body. In spite of the cards being stacked against the Democrats, the people delivered the House to the Democratic Party anyway. This was not a vote of confidence for the Democrats. People were simple voting AGAINST the Republicans, and privately the Democrats will acknowledge this.

The answer is for the President to announce immediately a phased withdrawal and put the burden of building a country back onto the Iraqis where it belongs. It is their country. They must be willing to die for building their own democracy, or leave it to the next dictator to pick up the pieces. It won’t be Thomas Jefferson, he’s just not there.

Richard Stoyeck

The Iraq war commenced in 2002 with the United States of America ousting the Saddam Hussein led Iraqi regime finally. But the mounting cost of war in Iraq all these years of war are still a weight on the minds of the economists and the taxpayers alike. A war can be really draining on the resources of the nation. Some optimists hold out the argument that the war is good for the economy. But this is far from true.

The funds we generally use during peace time to provide food, construct homes, manufacture appliances waste away in a fruitless war. The more time it takes to end, more the erosion of a base of a nation. Resources that could have been channeled in inventing and developing new technologies are turned on to bear the economic brunt of war. President Bush never realized that the cost of war in Iraq shall extract so much in terms of the human as well as the monetary costs. The general estimates of the historians are that the war has extracted 15 to 20 per cent of the total military spending of America.

The human cost of war in Iraq has also been appalling. It has been estimated that about 40,000 US soldiers were killed in the fierce combat. The missiles and air combats were also an extra add on. On an average, 30,000 US soldiers have been wounded since 2003.

Death of so many soldiers is a great loss for America, a country that cherishes its citizens. The costs for the specialized care of the wounded soldiers also incurred considerable expenditure in the form of procuring and transporting the medical teams and costly surgical equipments. The exact cost has been reported to have exceeded two trillion dollars.

The cost of war in Iraq would have been very meager if instead of going directly to the war; alternative strategies in order to cut down the costs would have been formulated. It is world known that the weapons of mass destruction (believed to have been hid by Saddam Hussein) were the chief factor behind the initiative of war by the United States. But after the war was over, still the United Nations inspectors were not able to find the actual weapons but only the future potential. So, a simple pressure could have been created by deploying half of the soldiers that went to Iraq on war, as a deterrent to spy on the activities there.

The cost of war in Iraq, however, had some benefits of deterrence as well if the economic costs are not taken into the consideration. It is not much widely known that the war actually forced countries like Libya to make open its nuclear secrets for the first time ever, fearing retaliation by the United States of America. So, at least the destruction of the polity and economy of Iraq served as a good example for the Middle World countries that were going berserk testing nuclear, chemical and even the biological weapons in future. Libya actually surrendered its arsenal of the weapons of mass destruction as well as all the well researched nuclear programs and the future plans.